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(57 votes) Published: Mar 21, 2008 1:18 p.m. Viewed 341 times
March Madness is upon us people. This is the time to rack up an enormous amount of free points, thanks to the Sports Bets section of RottenEggs. Finally, Monir did something right.
Now, just gazing at a standard March Madness bracket, you can determine a good amount of winners. Such as, North Carolina is currently the top seed in the region, and they are playing a team that barely made it into the tourney. That’s like the Lakers playing your high school team, it’s not pretty. Put the bank on Carolina.
Generally, you can nearly guarantee that a 4th seed or higher playing their opening game (Round of 64) against a 13th or lower seed will win. Very rarely, historically speaking, has a top-3 seed dropped its opening game, maybe ten times in history. Considering how long the tourney has been going on, 12 opportunities per year, very rare.
Another way to scam the system is to check the RPI ratings, and how each team did against the RPI in the regular season. The RPI is a complicated formula that produces a number which supposedly ranks a team. A team with a good against-RPI rating means they beat a few teams with high RPI rankings, so therefore they should be experienced and comfortable playing big-time games. More likely to win. For example, Carolina beat some big-time schools this year, had a great RPI rating. Mt St Mary’s, who they play in the first round, didn’t beat anyone worth a shit. Carolina knows how to win the big games, even more likely to stomp in the first round.
Not sure how well that graph will turn out in RE’s fucked up system, but it details the historical likeliness of each team to advance to each round. For example, Duke statistically has a 100% chance to reach the final 64, which they already have. In their history, they have a 90.4% likelihood of advancing to the round of 32, 64% chance of the Sweet Sixteen, 46% to go to the Elite Eight, 26% for the Final Four, 15% to go to the championship game, and 7.61% chance of winning it all.
Most of this is common sense, but since common sense isn’t that common, I’d thought I’d point it out. It truly is free points, because most of these games you bet 25000 points on them and you win 30,209 points. Instantly, you won 5200 points. In the opening rounds, you should be able to pocket about 40,000 points for nothing. The higher rounds, more risk.
Mar 21, 2008 3:17 pm - Some things are not guaranteed though.
5 Drake 100% 64.8% 40.47% 14.64% 6.62% 2.69% 0.98%
12 Western KY 100% 35.2% 16.91% 4.27% 1.38% 0.4% 0.1%
4 Connecticut 100% 76.97% 37.43% 11.66% 4.59% 1.61% 0.5%
13 San Diego 100% 23.03% 5.19% 0.64% 0.11% 0.02% 0%
You’d think UConn and Drake would be in the second round, however, SD beat UConn by one in overtime, and Western KY beat Drake. Who would have had a 12 vs a 13 in the 2nd round in their bracket?!
Mar 24, 2008 6:56 pm - i actually had san diego and western kntky in my bracket....i knew drake wasnt going to beat the underrated kentucky and UCONN was just too young and inexperienced i smelled an upset there. the rest of my bracket was messed up though